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Stocks to Buy: Jayaswal Neco Industries Ltd (JAYNECOIND) – Alpha Trade Recommendation

Synopsis:


Jayaswal Neco Industries is emerging from a stressed phase into a stronger integrated steel & mining company. With captive iron ore mines, pelletisation expansion, and debt refinancing, the stock offers structural earnings improvement. Bajaj Broking assigns a target of ₹91 based on 7× FY27E EV/EBITDA valuation.


At Bajaj Broking, our Alpha Trade ideas spotlight companies where operating levers and balance-sheet actions can unlock earnings momentum. Jayaswal Neco Industries Ltd (JNIL) is a turnaround, integrated steel & mining player with captive resources, pelletisation, beneficiation, and an active debt-reduction plan.

Recommendation Details

  • Stock: Jayaswal Neco Industries Ltd (JAYNECOIND)

  • Current Market Price (CMP): ₹72

  • Target Price: ₹91 (EV/EBITDA @ 7× FY27E)

  • Upside: 27%

  • Duration: 1 Year

  • 52-Week High/Low: ₹75.6 / ₹26.1

  • Market Cap: ₹69.69 bn

JAYASWAL NECO INDUSTR LTD

Trade

72.370.28 (0.38 %)

Updated - 06 October 2025
73.35day high
DAY HIGH
70.80day low
DAY LOW
8231506
VOLUME (BSE)

Why Jayaswal Neco Industries?

1) Captive iron-ore advantage with long visibility

Two operational iron-ore mines in Chhattisgarh Metabodeli (1 MTPA; valid till 2052) and Chotedongar (2.95 MTPA; valid till 2055). Current production is ~3 MTPA vs approved 4 MTPA; an additional 3 MTPA expansion is applied for (EC pending). Post approvals, total mining approval can reach 7 MTPA, ensuring raw-material security till 2055.

2) EBITDA-accretive pelletisation & beneficiation

  • Pellet plant: 1.5 MTPA operating; expansion planned with ₹6,400–6,500 mn capex over the next two years (subject to funding/cash flows). Pellet margins for low-cost miners are ₹1,000–1,500/ton, implying meaningful incremental EBITDA.

  • Coal washery: 1.5 MTPA in place; another 1.5 MTPA expected by Oct-2025, targeting ₹800–900 mn annual cost savings.

3) Balance-sheet strengthening via refinancing

  • Total debt ₹24,100 mn. In Aug-2025, JNIL refinanced ₹23 bn high-cost NCDs with Tata Capital at 12.5% p.a. (from 17.5%), 72-month repayment, DSRA and early redemption options. Finance costs to reduce by Dec-2025. Maturities of ₹4.79 bn (FY26) and ₹3.83 bn (FY27) are expected to be covered by internal accruals. 100% of promoter holding (55.2% as of 30-Jun-2024) is pledged with new lenders; 50% will be released post 50% repayment, improving flexibility.

4) Integrated, cost-efficient steel platform

  • JNIL operates across mining → pelletisation → power → downstream steel, enabling cost control, operating leverage and margin stability through cycles.

5) Valuation & view

  • Bajaj Broking values JNIL on EV/EBITDA, applying 7× FY27E to arrive at a ₹91 target. The thesis rests on (i) captive ore advantage, (ii) pellet/washery-led EBITDA accretion, and (iii) interest-cost normalization post refinancing.

Key risks (from PPT):

  • High promoter pledge (99.87%) limits flexibility.

  • EC timelines for mine expansion can slip.

  • Limited banking relationships may slow optimization.

About the Company

  • Founded in 1972 in Nagpur, JNIL has grown from a private foundry into one of India’s leading integrated alloy steel & castings manufacturers. After a challenging phase (near IBC referral), the company stabilized through asset monetization, refinancing, and capacity ramp-ups. It now operates as a cost-efficient steel producer with captive mines, pelletisation, power generation, and downstream steel capacity.

Financial Summary

Income Statement (₹ Cr)

  • Revenue: FY25 5,999.73 | FY26E 6,765.00 | FY27E 8,610.00

  • EBITDA: FY25 939.69 | FY26E 1,183.88 | FY27E 1,592.85

  • EBITDA Margin: FY25 15.7% | FY26E 17.5% | FY27E 18.5%

  • PAT: FY25 112.68 | FY26E 404.89 | FY27E 737.50

  • EPS: FY25 0.12 | FY26E 0.42 | FY27E 0.76

  • Growth (YoY): Revenue 1.1%, 12.8%, 27.3%; EBITDA –8.5%, 26.0%, 34.5%; PAT –46.3%, 259.3%, 82.1%.

Balance Sheet Highlights (₹ Cr)

  • Fixed Assets: FY25 3,337.78 | FY26E 3,393.09 | FY27E 3,545.43

  • CWIP: 109.95 | 101.07 | 92.90

  • Inventories: 1,214.07 | 1,368.93 | 1,742.27

  • Trade Receivables: 400.64 | 451.74 | 574.94

  • Cash & Cash Equivalents: 155.79 | 344.78 | 621.76

  • Total Assets: 5,741.46 | 5,981.02 | 6,864.26

  • Equity Share Capital: constant 970.99 across FY25–FY27E.

Cash Flow (₹ Cr)

  • Net Cash from Operating: FY25 1,388.55 | FY26E 878.58 | FY27E 922.84

  • Capex: 244.11 | 325.00 | 325.00

  • Net Cash from Investing: –236.18 | –325.00 | –325.00

  • Finance Cost: 612.28 | 364.61 | 320.86

  • Net Cash from Financing: –1,085.98 | –364.61 | –320.86

  • Closing Cash: 155.81 → 344.78 → 621.76.

Return Ratios & Valuation Multiples

  • ROCE: 13.9%, 17.5%, 22.2% (FY25 → FY27E)

  • ROE: 4.7%, 14.6%, 21.0%

  • P/E: 62.0×, 17.3×, 9.5×

  • EV/EBITDA: 10.3×, 8.1×, 5.8×

  • P/B: 2.9×, 2.5×, 2.0×

  • EV/Sales: 1.6×, 1.4×, 1.1×

  • Debt/Equity: 1.2×, 1.0×, 0.8×.

Shareholding Pattern

  • Q1 FY26: Promoter 55.15%, FII 0.04%, DII 0.00%, Others 44.81%

  • Q4 FY25: Promoter 55.15%, FII 0.02%, DII 0.00%, Others 44.83%

  • Q3 FY25: Promoter 54.46%, FII 0.02%, DII 0.00%, Others 45.52%

  • Promoter pledge: 99.87% 

Conclusion

JNIL’s integrated model (captive ore, pelletisation, washery, power, downstream steel) plus refinancing-led cost relief sets up a credible earnings recovery. With mine leases valid till 2052/2055, expansion optionality to 7 MTPA, and a ₹91 target (EV/EBITDA 7× FY27E), the thesis emphasizes improving cost curve and cash flows. Near-term watchpoints include high promoter pledge and EC timelines for the mining expansion.

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