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Nifty eyes 25,700 in June 2025 amid rate cuts, strong midcap earnings, and a positive monsoon forecast. Bajaj Broking’s analysis highlights sectoral trends, technical support levels, and the improving market breadth that signal continued bullish momentum.
The Indian equity market begins June 2025 with a constructive setup. Bajaj Broking maintains a positive view on the Nifty, targeting a level of 25,700 over the short term. This outlook is supported by monetary easing, earnings growth in mid and smallcap segments, and improving technical indicators.
Nifty 50 companies reported a 5.72% year-on-year growth in consolidated revenues, reaching ₹22.14 lakh crore. IT and banking sectors contributed 6% and 8.5% growth, respectively.
Midcap companies showed stronger performance, with the Nifty Midcap 150 index reporting a 21% rise in profits.
Small-cap companies also showed stability, with the Nifty Smallcap 250 companies registering a 12.5% increase in net profit and 14% growth in revenue.
In its recent policy update, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. This marked the third consecutive rate cut in 2025. Additionally, a 100 basis point cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) is expected to inject ₹2.5 lakh crore into the system.
The policy stance was changed to ‘Neutral’, indicating a more data-dependent approach.
Sectoral Impacts
Banking & NBFCs: Lower funding costs may support lending, though margin pressures could emerge in the near term.
Real Estate: Lower borrowing costs may improve housing affordability and project financing.
Capital Goods & Domestic Manufacturing: Encouraging for capex-oriented companies aligned with government-led infrastructure programs.
The US Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on June 17–18. Markets expect the Fed to maintain its rate range of 4.25–4.50%. Headline inflation in April stood at 2.2%, while core inflation was 2.6%, above the target level.
No rate changes are expected in June, but markets anticipate potential cuts beginning September 2025, based on incoming economic data.
The India Meteorological Department has forecasted above-average rainfall for 2025. Historically, such conditions have supported rural consumption and agricultural output.
In similar years, the Nifty has delivered 5–6% returns between June and December, with better performance observed in broader indices such as midcaps and smallcaps.
Nifty 50
Resistance: 25,700
Support: 24,400–24,500
The index has broken above recent consolidation levels. Dips toward the support zone are likely to attract interest.
Bank Nifty
Resistance: 58,000
Support: 54,500–55,000
Bank Nifty has reached new highs post-RBI policy announcement. The trend remains upward, with broader-range breakout implications.
Market participation is expanding. As of June, 55% of Nifty 500 constituents are trading above their 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), up from less than 10% in March.
This trend suggests increasing investor interest across a wider range of stocks, often seen in the early phase of market upswings.
Since early March, the Nifty has gained approximately 13%, performing better than several major global indices, including the FTSE 100, Nikkei, Hang Seng, DAX, and Dow Jones.
The Nifty has also outperformed commodities like gold, crude oil, and copper, as well as the US dollar index and US 10-year yield.
The emergence of new COVID-19 variants may affect sentiment.
Global trade tensions or geopolitical developments could increase volatility.
Policy surprises from global central banks may alter capital flow trends.
June 2025 opens with Indian equities positioned for steady progress. Rate cuts, improving breadth, and earnings growth are providing support.
Bajaj Broking maintains a selectively optimistic outlook. Investors may consider a diversified approach with a focus on fundamentals, using short-term corrections as potential entry points.
Key support and resistance levels should be monitored, while global events such as the US Fed decision and inflation trends may shape near-term volatility.
Source - Bajaj Broking Research Desk
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