BAJAJ BROKING

Notification close image
No new Notification messages
card image
Jainik Power Cables IPO is Open!
Apply for the Jainik Power Cables IPO through UPI in just minutes.
delete image
card image
Start your SIP with just ₹100
Choose from 4,000+ Mutual Funds on Bajaj Broking
delete image
card image
Open a Free Demat Account
Pay ZERO maintenance charges for the first year, get free stock picks daily, and more.
delete image
card image
Trade Now, Pay Later with up to 4x
Never miss a good trading opportunity due to low funds with our MTF feature.
delete image
card image
Track Market Movers Instantly
Stay updated with real-time data. Get insights at your fingertips.
delete image

Nifty Outlook June 2025: Bullish Momentum, Rate Cuts, and Monsoon Boost

Synopsis:

Nifty eyes 25,700 in June 2025 amid rate cuts, strong midcap earnings, and a positive monsoon forecast. Bajaj Broking’s analysis highlights sectoral trends, technical support levels, and the improving market breadth that signal continued bullish momentum.


The Indian equity market begins June 2025 with a constructive setup. Bajaj Broking maintains a positive view on the Nifty, targeting a level of 25,700 over the short term. This outlook is supported by monetary easing, earnings growth in mid and smallcap segments, and improving technical indicators.

Earnings Snapshot – Q4 FY25

Nifty 50 companies reported a 5.72% year-on-year growth in consolidated revenues, reaching ₹22.14 lakh crore. IT and banking sectors contributed 6% and 8.5% growth, respectively.
Midcap companies showed stronger performance, with the Nifty Midcap 150 index reporting a 21% rise in profits.
Small-cap companies also showed stability, with the Nifty Smallcap 250 companies registering a 12.5% increase in net profit and 14% growth in revenue.

Policy Environment

In its recent policy update, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.5%. This marked the third consecutive rate cut in 2025. Additionally, a 100 basis point cut in the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) is expected to inject ₹2.5 lakh crore into the system.
The policy stance was changed to ‘Neutral’, indicating a more data-dependent approach.

Sectoral Impacts

  • Banking & NBFCs: Lower funding costs may support lending, though margin pressures could emerge in the near term.

  • Real Estate: Lower borrowing costs may improve housing affordability and project financing.

  • Capital Goods & Domestic Manufacturing: Encouraging for capex-oriented companies aligned with government-led infrastructure programs.

Global Outlook – US Federal Reserve

The US Federal Reserve will hold its policy meeting on June 17–18. Markets expect the Fed to maintain its rate range of 4.25–4.50%. Headline inflation in April stood at 2.2%, while core inflation was 2.6%, above the target level.
No rate changes are expected in June, but markets anticipate potential cuts beginning September 2025, based on incoming economic data.

Monsoon Trends and Equity Correlation

The India Meteorological Department has forecasted above-average rainfall for 2025. Historically, such conditions have supported rural consumption and agricultural output.
In similar years, the Nifty has delivered 5–6% returns between June and December, with better performance observed in broader indices such as midcaps and smallcaps.

Technical Analysis

Nifty 50

  • Resistance: 25,700

  • Support: 24,400–24,500

The index has broken above recent consolidation levels. Dips toward the support zone are likely to attract interest.

Bank Nifty

  • Resistance: 58,000

  • Support: 54,500–55,000

Bank Nifty has reached new highs post-RBI policy announcement. The trend remains upward, with broader-range breakout implications.

Market Breadth Recovery

Market participation is expanding. As of June, 55% of Nifty 500 constituents are trading above their 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), up from less than 10% in March.
This trend suggests increasing investor interest across a wider range of stocks, often seen in the early phase of market upswings.

Relative Performance

Since early March, the Nifty has gained approximately 13%, performing better than several major global indices, including the FTSE 100, Nikkei, Hang Seng, DAX, and Dow Jones.
The Nifty has also outperformed commodities like gold, crude oil, and copper, as well as the US dollar index and US 10-year yield.

Risk Factors to Monitor

  • The emergence of new COVID-19 variants may affect sentiment.

  • Global trade tensions or geopolitical developments could increase volatility.

  • Policy surprises from global central banks may alter capital flow trends.

Conclusion

June 2025 opens with Indian equities positioned for steady progress. Rate cuts, improving breadth, and earnings growth are providing support.
Bajaj Broking maintains a selectively optimistic outlook. Investors may consider a diversified approach with a focus on fundamentals, using short-term corrections as potential entry points.
Key support and resistance levels should be monitored, while global events such as the US Fed decision and inflation trends may shape near-term volatility.

Source - Bajaj Broking Research Desk

Share this article: 

Read More Blogs

Disclaimer :

The information on this website is provided on "AS IS" basis. Bajaj Broking (BFSL) does not warrant the accuracy of the information given herein, either expressly or impliedly, for any particular purpose and expressly disclaims any warranties of merchantability or suitability for any particular purpose. While BFSL strives to ensure accuracy, it does not guarantee the completeness, reliability, or timeliness of the information. Users are advised to independently verify details and stay updated with any changes.

The information provided on this website is for general informational purposes only and is subject to change without prior notice. BFSL shall not be responsible for any consequences arising from reliance on the information provided herein and shall not be held responsible for all or any actions that may subsequently result in any loss, damage and or liability. Interest rates, fees, and charges etc., are revised from time to time, for the latest details please refer to our Pricing page.

Neither the information, nor any opinion contained in this website constitutes a solicitation or offer by BFSL or its affiliates to buy or sell any securities, futures, options or other financial instruments or provide any investment advice or service.

BFSL is acting as distributor for non-broking products/ services such as IPO, Mutual Fund, Insurance, PMS, and NPS. These are not Exchange Traded Products. For more details on risk factors, terms and conditions please read the sales brochure carefully before investing.

Investments in the securities market are subject to market risk, read all related documents carefully before investing. This content is for educational purposes only. Securities quoted are exemplary and not recommendatory.

[ Read More ]

For more disclaimer, check here : https://www.bajajbroking.in/disclaimer

Our Secure Trading Platforms

Level up your stock market experience: Download the Bajaj Broking App for effortless investing and trading

Bajaj Broking App Download

10 lakh+ Users

icon-with-text

4.4 App Rating

icon-with-text

4 Languages

icon-with-text

₹5100+ Cr MTF Book

icon-with-text
banner-icon

Open Your Free Demat Account

Enjoy low brokerage on delivery trades

+91

|

Please Enter Mobile Number

Open Your Free Demat Account

Enjoy low brokerage on delivery trades

+91

|