Buy Hindustan Unilever at ₹2,330–2,370 with a one‑year target of ₹2,590 (≈10 % upside). The stock has broken out of a downtrend and is supported around ₹2,300–2,270, offering a fresh entry. While rural recovery, GST reforms, and higher disposable incomes underpin demand, new leadership is driving volume growth and premiumisation.
Overview
Hindustan Unilever (HUL) is the focus of this stock pick from Bajaj Broking. According to the research slide provided, Bajaj Broking has assigned the stock a Buy rating with a one‑year target price of ₹2,590 and an expected return of about 10%. The recommended buying range is between ₹2,330 and ₹2,370, with key technical support around ₹2,300–2,270. This note summarises the technical view, investment thesis, and valuation outlook from the slide and presents them in blog format. All figures and statements are drawn directly from the provided slide; no external data has been added.
Parameter | Value |
Buying range | ₹2,330 – ₹2,370 |
Target price | ₹2,590 |
Time horizon | 1 year |
Expected return | 10% |
Support zone | ₹2,300 – ₹2,270 (technical support) |
The technical analysis on the slide highlights that HUL has broken out above a falling channel that joins the highs of the last two months. This breakout signals a potential resumption of the up‑move and provides a fresh entry opportunity for investors within the recommended buying range. Should the price retrace, the key support lies between ₹2,300 and ₹2,270, corresponding to recent trendline support and the key retracement of the recent up‑move. The research expects HUL to head toward ₹2,590 over the coming quarters, which is noted as the 61.8% retracement of the previous major decline and the high of October 2025.
Focus on Volume Growth under New Management
Change in leadership: The research slide notes that with a new CEO in place, management’s focus has shifted toward driving volume growth and product rationalization. This strategic pivot suggests an emphasis on expanding unit sales rather than relying solely on price hikes.
Premium innovations and portfolio transformation: HUL continues to concentrate on scaling up premium innovations, transforming its product portfolio, segmenting consumers more precisely, and modernizing its brands. The company is also accelerating efforts in digital and e-commerce channels.
Margin guidance and divestment: Management is maintaining its near‑term EBITDA margin guidance at 22–23%. This margin guidance is supported by the expected volume recovery and the sale of the low‑margin ice‑cream business, which should improve overall profitability.
Underlying Volume Growth (UVG): In Q2 FY26, HUL’s UVG remained flat due to earlier price discounts and monsoon disruptions. Despite this, the Home Care and Foods segments delivered competitive volume growth. The slide notes that volume growth was also hampered by recent changes in the Goods and Services Tax (GST), but it anticipates that H2 FY26 will show better volume growth compared with H1 FY26.
The research argues that HUL is positioned as a direct beneficiary of rural recovery and growing demand for premium products. Last year’s GST rationalization and personal income tax revisions have increased disposable incomes, which should drive a sustained uptick in mass- and mid-segment consumption. As HUL’s portfolio spans the broad fast‑moving consumer goods (FMCG) spectrum, the company is well placed to benefit from this macro‑trend. Consequently, Bajaj Broking’s research slide retains a Buy rating on the stock with a target price of ₹2,590 and implies a valuation of 47× FY28E EPS.
Fresh entry opportunity: The breakout above the falling channel, coupled with strong support around ₹2,300–2,270, suggests a bullish technical setup.
Management shift: A renewed focus on volume growth and product optimization under the new CEO indicates strategic realignment.
Margin stability: Retaining an EBITDA margin guidance of 22–23% while divesting low‑margin operations (ice‑cream business) highlights management’s commitment to profitability.
Macro tailwinds: Rural recovery, premiumization, and higher disposable incomes are expected to support demand across HUL’s broad portfolio.
In conclusion, Bajaj Broking’s research highlights Hindustan Unilever as a compelling investment opportunity for a one‑year horizon. The stock’s recent breakout from a multi‑month downtrend, combined with strong support around ₹2,300–2,270, points to renewed momentum and a clear technical entry range of ₹2,330–2,370. On the fundamental front, a new management focus on volume growth, premiumization, and digital expansion, coupled with the sale of the low‑margin ice‑cream business, supports an EBITDA margin target of 22–23%. Rural demand recovery, GST rationalization, and higher disposable incomes further underpin the positive outlook. Together, these factors justify Bajaj Broking’s ₹2,590 target price and 10% expected return, while reminding investors to remain mindful of market risks and align their positions with their risk tolerance.
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