A fair value gap is a range of prices with minimal trading because of sudden shifts. It is used by traders to identify entry points, exit points, and resistance points while trading. As a trader, you might have experienced price changes that seem to be abnormal. You must have been curious to know what resulted in those price shifts and if they really represent a profit-making opportunity.
Fair value gaps, specifically, are important for traders who make trading decisions solely based on the price movements of a stock. A fair value gap occurs during periods of market imperfections. Such imbalances depict situations when the purchase and sale volumes are unequal. When plotted on a chart, a fair value gap becomes visible in a triple-candle pattern. There are two candles out of which one is larger than the other. The high of the candle before the larger candle and the low of the subsequent candle do not entirely extend along the large candle and the area between these candles is referred to as the fair value gap. An endeavor of the market actions is to close these gaps so that the prices return to these levels in the future. If you are a trader, you must understand fair value gaps in depth. Read more to find out identifying fair value gaps in price charts, trading strategies using fair value gaps, practical examples of fair value gap trades, and fair value gaps in different markets.
Identifying Fair Value Gaps on Price Charts
A close observation of the candlestick patterns is required for identifying fair value gaps. You can either do it manually or use a trading software that automates the identification. Usually, a fair value gap occurs when there are three candles. So, the first candle jumps to a particular direction. The second candle continues in the same direction that creates a gap or space between the first and the third candles. Now, the third candle does not overlap entirely with the first candle, creating an empty space in the prices which is earmarked as the “fair value gap.” Suppose there is a stock that jumps from ₹115 to ₹130 and there is minimal trading in between. So, this gap of ₹15 is known as the fair value gap.
The sudden price movement in a stock may happen due to strong buying. For instance, a stock priced at ₹600 may see an abrupt price increase to ₹640 in a single move. In the ₹40 gap, few transactions have occurred and the traders who notice this price rise and gap level may continue observing this trend as prices may rebound to the gap levels. If you are a trader who is just starting out, then you may want to familiarize yourselves with technical analysis and common candlestick patterns by clicking this link.
Trading Strategies Utilizing Fair Value Gaps
After a fair value gap is identified, it can be utilized in numerous ways by traders. Following are some trading strategies employed by traders utilizing fair value gaps -
Long and short positions
When a fair value gap is created as the price is moving upwards, traders create a long position in order to benefit from continued price movement upwards after the market imperfections clear out. This is because traders expect the prices to rebound to fair value gap levels. On the flip side, when a fair value gap is created as the price moves downwards, traders create a short position so that they can benefit from the price movement in the same downward trend once the market imbalance gets cleared. Traders enter this short position because they expect the prices to rebound to fair value gap levels. Therefore, fair value gaps are utilized by traders to determine the entry and the exit points.
Indicators of resistance and support
The direction of price movement determines whether traders sell or buy. When the price moves to the fair value level from below, this indicates resistance and traders may sell and realize profits. On the other hand, if the price returns to fair value levels from above, then this acts as a support leading traders to accumulate more volumes at this level.
Fair value gap along with other technical indicators
Traders combine multiple indicators along with the fair value gap concept and utilize that in their trading strategy. Moving averages such as the simple moving average or the weighted moving average offer a view on general price movement trends. Levels of support and resistance give an estimate of price reversal and continuation. If a fair value gap closely aligns with an indicator named order block, then it represents an increased chance of a trade being successful. The time durations also matter because a fair value gap on an hourly interval is more effective than a fair value on a smaller interval such as minutes or seconds.
Practical Examples of Fair Value Gap Trades
Assume that the BSE SENSEX trades at a level of 76,000 and the price of a particular company’s stock trades at ₹134. Now, because of the news of a joint venture paving the way for the company for a new market entry, the price of its stock jumps to ₹200 within a few minutes. But the volume of trade between ₹134 and ₹200 was minimal which gives rise to a fair value gap.
If the price moves in an upward trend, then traders expect the prices to rebound to fair value levels so they create long positions. On the contrary, if the price moves in a downward trend, then traders expect the prices to move up to their fair value levels and create short positions. Learn more about short selling by clicking this link. Numerous such examples of fair value gaps are exploited by traders in order to benefit from these price fluctuations.
Fair Value Gaps in Different Markets
The equity market, forex market, and crypto market experience a high level of fair value gaps leading to traders exploiting such imbalances till the market clears out those aberrations. Let us consider these markets and understand how fair value gaps operate.
Equity market
In the India equity market, companies such as Infosys, HDFC Bank, Reliance and others may frequently experience fair value gaps due to multiple reasons - announcement of quarterly earnings, news of mergers/acquisition/JVs, management reshuffle, and any other news that drives the sentiments up or down.
FOREX market
News of improved or depleting foreign exchange reserves, RBI announcements on interest rates, government announcement on increasing GDP numbers, and other such metrics can create fair value gaps between USD and INR, EURO and INR, GBP and INR, etc.
Crypto market
Crypto markets are relatively more unstable than the equity and the FOREX markets as they are not regulated in a standardized manner in countries. Cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum or Bitcoin move up and down after news of a new regulatory framework or other major global events.
Is Trading Fair Value Gaps a Good Idea?
As a trader you must be aware of the benefits and disadvantages of using fair value gaps in your trading strategy. There are several benefits of utilizing fair value gaps. If a fair value gap can be precisely identified by a trader, then there may be an opportunity to earn substantial profits. Another advantage of the fair value gap strategy is that it does not focus only on price movements but more on market imbalances. So, it is a less risky strategy than those that focus purely on price trends. Also, you can apply this strategy across asset classes such as bonds, currencies, stocks, and commodities which makes the fair value gap strategy very useful and widely-applicable.
However, the fair value gap has its share of drawbacks. A trader may misjudge the formation of a fair value gap and execute trades. But the price may not revert to fair value levels but continue increasing or decreasing that may result in huge losses for traders. Even for traders following a fair value gap strategy, markets could be extremely volatile and there is always the risk of small movements leading to losses. Additionally, a fair value gap strategy may be more effective in efficient markets whereas in other markets, opportunities from fair value gap may be very limited.
Conclusion
A fair value gap strategy offers opportunities to earn benefits out of market imbalances. It is particularly suited to very traders who are proficient and have an eye for identifying market imperfections. Traders can apply this strategy across several markets such as equities, commodities, currencies, cryptocurrencies, forex, and bonds. Combining the insights from fair value gap strategy and other technical indicators may increase the likelihood of a profit-making trade.
However, beginners may find fair value gap strategy to be overwhelming resulting in loss-making trades. New traders may focus on learning candlestick patterns, spotting fair value gaps, and eventually getting better at identifying market imperfections while simultaneously executing less complex trading strategies.