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BAJAJ BROKING
As August 2025 approaches, India's economy is entangled in a web of both global upheavals and domestic resiliency. The biggest shock came from the other side of the Atlantic, as the United States imposed a 25% tariff on all Indian exports on August 1. Although trade disputes are not new, this action, which targeted goods valued at almost $87 billion, has affected many industries and opinions.
So, what triggered this sudden policy swerve?
President Trump pointed fingers at India’s growing trade surplus with the U.S., persistent tariffs on American imports, and closer India-Russia ties—especially in the energy and defense corridors. The implications are far-reaching. India, after all, is the top supplier of generic drugs and a key iPhone manufacturing hub for the U.S. A tariff of this magnitude is likely to clip India’s GDP growth by 20–40 basis points this fiscal. Even optimistic projections for FY2025-26 are being revised below the 6% mark.
Despite global headwinds, July’s GST numbers indicate a steady domestic engine. Gross collections rose 7.5% year-on-year to ₹1.96 lakh crore. Imports seem to be driving much of this growth, but refunds—up 66.8%—have dulled net collections. While consumption remains intact, the GST Council may soon need to revisit rate structures to balance collections and refunds.
The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for India is still performing well. Both manufacturing and services are comfortably above the 50-point threshold that distinguishes growth from contraction, with manufacturing sitting at 56.7 and services rising to 60.4. Healthy business activity is indicated by the overall composite PMI of 60.1. Rising output prices and ongoing inflation in input costs, however, may restrict RBI's options.
The RBI is faced with a policy conundrum after lowering the repo rate three times this year, from 6.5% to 5.5%, a decrease of 100 basis points. Although inflation is steady, there are significant global uncertainties. There are no indications that domestic demand is waning, and oil prices are rising. Foreign capital flows and inflation trends will play a major role in determining whether a fourth cut is necessary.
Equity markets are digesting the macro signals. After a stellar 12-week rally earlier this year, Nifty and Bank Nifty are both experiencing some profit booking. Nifty is expected to trade within a range of 24,400–25,250, with resistance near the higher end. For Bank Nifty, 55,000–57,000 remains the watch zone.
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net sellers in July, signaling caution.
August 2025 is shaping up to be a month of cautious consolidation. While India's internal demand and PMI strength offer comfort, the external shocks—especially U.S. trade actions—warrant close attention. As always, market participants would do well to watch global cues, monitor domestic inflation, and brace for volatility in the short term.
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